Ghana’s 2026 Budget: Navigating Credibility and Market Confidence for Economic Growth

Ghana’s 2026 Budget: The Imperative of Institutional Credibility and Market Confidence

The “2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy” is not merely an accounting exercise; it is a critical document of national credibility. Having spent years navigating the complexities of global financial markets and now focusing on institutional governance in Ghana, I view this budget through a dual lens: the cold, hard arithmetic of the markets and the essential need for robust, transparent governance. The theme, “Resetting for Growth, Jobs, and Economic Transformation,” is laudable, but the true measure of this budget lies in its commitment to structural integrity and its ability to restore market confidence.

The Anchors of Stability: Fiscal and Monetary Policy

The government’s adherence to the IMF-supported program is the non-negotiable foundation of this budget. The targets set are not arbitrary; they are the price of admission back into the global capital markets.

The commitment to achieving a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP is the most significant signal to creditors and investors. This is the fiscal anchor that demonstrates a serious intent to manage the debt overhang. From a market perspective, this is a necessary, albeit painful, step. The alternative—a continued reliance on unsustainable borrowing—is simply not an option. The challenge, however, is the execution. As a former market operator, I know that markets price in risk, and the risk here is policy slippage. The government must demonstrate an unwavering commitment to this target, as any deviation will immediately translate into higher borrowing costs and currency volatility.

The macroeconomic targets are ambitious, particularly the projected real GDP growth of 5.8% and the single-digit inflation target of 8.0% ± 2%. These figures demand not only disciplined fiscal management but also coordinated monetary policy to stabilize prices and foster a conducive environment for investment.

Beyond the Numbers: Governance and Private Sector Enablement

The budget’s success will not be determined by the targets alone, but by the institutional reforms that underpin them. This is where the governance perspective becomes paramount. Critical areas include:

• Revenue Mobilization and Transparency

  The focus on broadening the tax base and improving compliance is correct. However, this must be paired with transparency in how these revenues are spent. As a CDD Fellow, I stress that citizens will only comply if they see a direct, accountable link between their taxes and public service delivery. The budget must detail concrete steps to plug leakages and enhance the efficiency of revenue collection agencies.

• Financial Sector Stability

  As a Board Member in the banking sector, the stability of the financial system is a primary concern. The aftermath of the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) has required significant recapitalization and liquidity support. The 2026 budget must explicitly reinforce the health of the banking sector, ensuring that banks are in a position to resume their core function of providing credit to the real economy, particularly to SMEs. Without a robust, liquid financial sector, the 5.8% growth target remains a pipe dream.

• Structural Reforms for Growth

  Initiatives like the “Big Push Infrastructure Programme” and the “24-Hour Economy” are vital, but they must be viewed as structural reforms aimed at reducing the cost of doing business and enhancing productivity. The focus must shift from government-led projects to creating an environment where the private sector—the true engine of growth—can thrive. This means tackling bureaucratic bottlenecks, ensuring energy sector stability, and, critically, addressing the persistent issue of arrears and payables, which cripple local businesses.

The Test of Execution

Ghana’s 2026 budget is a blueprint for stabilization, not a grand plan for immediate prosperity. It is a necessary, disciplined response to a crisis. The market will reward consistency and punish complacency.

The true test of this budget is not its presentation in Parliament, but its execution over the next twelve months. The government must move beyond rhetoric and deliver on the institutional reforms—in governance, revenue collection, and expenditure management—that will convince both the international markets and the Ghanaian private sector that this “reset” is genuine and irreversible. Only then will the ambitious growth targets transition from hopeful projections to sustainable economic reality.